Comments on: So, about that Storm of the Century in New York City…

By: parker

parker — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 22:38:19 +0000

A climatological prediction beyond 2 months is a shot into the dark. Everything under the sun is ruled by the sun. Personally, I am glad the ‘mini ice age’ ended a few centuries ago. Keeping flying you private jet Al.

By: Mr. Frank

Mr. Frank — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 21:49:43 +0000

As Harold notes: “That said the take away is that despite a half dozen forecasting models (GSI, NAM, Euro etc.) they all failed to accurately predict. Which after all is what models are for.

So when it comes to AGW with century long forecasts lets step back and realize it’s absolutely impossible to do that kind of forecasting.”

The failure of the models is especially damning in that they were for only 24 hours. One assumes that 24 years would really be a shot in the dark.

By: parker

parker — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 20:24:44 +0000

In flyover country most people deal with floods, tornadoes, droughts, bitter cold, and blizzards with a shrug of their shoulders. Occasional extreme weather is merely a part of life on earth. Too many soft, panic prone people in America relying on big nanny. No wonder we are sliding to an abyss of debt and Jimmy’s malaise.

By: ganderson

ganderson — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 18:22:26 +0000

A decent sized snowfall in Western MA- nothing out of the ordinary- my FB page tell me they got much more east of here

By: Lea

Lea — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:50:31 +0000

“Models obviously can be misused”

It seems like all the weather forecasters are looking at multiple models, which vary widely in predictions – which makes the whole thing crap apparently. That’s my read on it the past few times we’ve had something predicted.

I don’t think we’re getting any snow this winter where I live, although I guess we have another month where it is possible. It’s been 60 plus for the last week or two, though.

By: Exasperated

Exasperated — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:46:31 +0000

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT. Models obviously can be misused, but the geniuses have so much ego involvement and emotional investment in them, it is like they are wearing blinders. They see models as ends in themselves, instead of as tools. Since they are surrounded by yes men, they have round robins of mutual self congratulations that are self promoting and self serving. In other words, they actually believe their own hype and spin.
The manufacture of complex microwave switches depends on models. These switches often have multiple subsystems and feedback loops, and each subsystem, may in turn, have multiple subsystems and feedback loops, of its own. No matter how clever and ingenious the design and concept are, it doesn’t take much to throw the prototype out of spec. Sometimes it is shocking how the smallest and most insignificant change can skew the end result.

By: Exasperated

Exasperated — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:27:44 +0000

It’s a damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
It’s petering out where I am (NH) and people are starting to move about. The snow is within an inch of the bottom of the mail boxes. If we didn’t hit or exceed the forecast, we came close.

By: Harold

Harold — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:14:36 +0000

Everyone should be glad that this storm is less severe and widespread then originally predicted. Fewer people died and less property damage was done.

That said the take away is that despite a half dozen forecasting models (GSI, NAM, Euro etc.) they all failed to accurately predict. Which after all is what models are for.

So when it comes to AGW with century long forecasts lets step back and realize it’s absolutely impossible to do that kind of forecasting.

Unless the singularity comes and super intelligent robots figure out a way, weather forecasting will remain very iffy for decades to come.

By: J.J.

J.J. — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 16:41:15 +0000

Highly forecast weather disasters almost never meet expectations. The unforecast ones can be quite a trial.

Christmas Eve 0f 1982 in Denver. Snow was forecast, but snow is not a big deal in Denver. The mayor, Bill McNichols sent most of his snowplow operators home. This snow storm turned out to be a monster blizzard, which hit with such sudden ferocity that by the time they realized they needed the operators back, they couldn’t get to the snowplows. This storm lasted for 24 hours piling up 29″ with drifts to five feet. The city was paralyzed for almost a week before people could get back to some semblance of normal. The side streets were not plowed until the city could arrange for private contractors (mostly pickup owners with snow blades mounted on their pickups) to go in and plow them. The storm is now remembered as the Big Dig. The effects lasted for months because there was a lot of compacted snow on roads, which turned to black ice and it didn’t melt finally until March. Mayor McNichols lost his job over his decision to send the plow operators home early.

For eight years (1993 – 2000) I lived in a small town in the Cascade Mountains. Snow was a weekly, sometimes daily, occurrence from November to April. 24 – 36″ was common. Everyone was equipped and able to function pretty normally. It all depends on what you are equipped to deal with.

However, the reaction to this forecast seemed to me to be completely overdone. But I guess a lot of Mayors and Governors may remember what happened to Bill McNichols.

By: Gringo

Gringo — Tue, 27 Jan 2015 15:40:58 +0000

Here in TX we have our own form of hyping bad weather on TV. In the summer, when one could give a daily forecast of “High 95-100, low 77, no rain” every day for three months,the summer TV weather persons will bloviate about the cloud that was seen 100 miles away on the weather radar that JUST MIGHT result in rain.

Those living in the Northeast will laugh at what is considered bad winter weather in TX. Like snow or an ice storm once every five years. The TV stations will cut out regularly scheduled programs to feature some intrepid reporter reporting outside to inform viewers that YES, there is snow or Yes there is ice, and YES motor vehicles have been known to slip and slide under such conditions.