Russia isn’t a squeaky clean democracy. So what? Historically we got along pretty well with the Czars, who did us several good turns when we were just starting out and during the Civil War. We couldn’t afford to be choosy then. We can’t now. Neither can Russia.

Of course Putin wants to reestablish super power status; having China for a next door neighbor naturally would. Would that be necessarily bad for the US? You sure? Or are you ready to deal with China single-handed.

Can Putin be trusted? Recall the fate of S. Vietnam, Cambodia, Taiwan, our good ally Mubarrak, our useful ally Col Kadaffi and ask, can we?

A Washington-Moscow pact based on self-interest, mutual respect and patient horse-trading intrigues the hell out of me.

That shows a remarkable assessment of Putin. Not a thug at all, merely another dictatorial politician? Not interested in reestablishing the Soviet Empire and superpower status? Would work cooperatively with the US in the UN and stop protecting rogue nations in the UN? Would stop funding and facilitating Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons?

You might consider that the terms of a US/Russia agreement that Putin would find satisfactory would not be something we could live with, as it would require that we acquiesce to power sharing that condoned the rule of men.

Long term, in spite of everything, the USA and Russia have common interests and face common dangers, and need to reach an understanding fast. Putin, I think, knows it. Our parade of daffies and small time politicians don’t. Somebody please dig up Nixon.

BTW, there’s a link at Ace of Spades (Feb. 24 post) to an analysis of the people in the Ukrainian uprising that goes into more “granular” detail about the various parties involved, well worth a read.

You are both quite possibly correct. The massing of troops on the border is at least a threat, or could be a prelude to invasion. I’m not sure there’s a way to tell the difference until it’s too late.

Although some would argue against provocation on Ukraine’s part, I would rather go with the maxim “if you want peace, prepare for war.” If Ukraine wants to deter Russian aggression, they should make it clear that an invasion will be met with stiff resistance.

Or, at least that’s what they would do if they weren’t bust-ass broke.

Matt_SE: I think Putin will do what he did in Georgia: Stage a few incidents, then receive an “invitation” from the Russian population “to protect them from the evil western Ukranian oppressors.” (The population in Crimea already issued one.) He’ll look around, see that nobody will do anything, then invade — excuse me, “liberate” the eastern Ukraine.

From Joshuapundit;

“on Sunday, President Obama’s NSC Susan Rice came out with some forceful language warning Russia, about sending its military into the Ukraine, saying, “That would be a grave mistake.”

Today, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev responded, both to Rice and to interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov’s statement about being ready for dialogue with Russia. And here’s the full quote, a bit different from what Reuter’s reported.

“Today I see no legitimate Ukrainian partners for a dialogue. If people crossing Kiev in black masks and Kalashnikov rifles are considered a government, it will be difficult for us to work with such a government.” Medvedev said, as he referred to the new Ukrainian government as “the result of a mutiny” and a “real threat to our interests, and to our citizens’ lives and health”.

And unlike Ms. Rice, Russia is backing up its words with action on the ground.

According to my sources, there has been a substantial Russian military buildup on the Ukraine’s borders.

The ending of the Winter Olympics in Sochi allowed the transfer of units of the Russian forces that were guarding the games. They were flown today to Russian bases at the Ukrainian Crimean port of Sevastopol, where Russia leases a naval base. Russian Air Force transports and special forces are being consolidated at a base located at the Rostov, close to the southeastern Ukrainian town of Donetsk.

A Russian military build up was also seen near Belgorod, just a few miles from the Ukraine border and just to the north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkov.”

Here’s a map.

IMO, Putin’s response to the Ukrainian revolt will be a reaction to Ukraine’s immediate actions, not to empty threats from the West. So if Putin is moving troops into position, is it merely a threat or a prelude to invasion? I suspect that the movement of tanks toward the Ukraine border (unknown at this time) would be a determinative factor in answering that question.

I suspect that Ukraine announcing its determination to accept the EU’s offers would be a ‘trigger’ for Putin.

If Putin reactively sends Russian troops in, since he’s already said that he doesn’t want to see Ukraine break up (precluding Russia only seizing the eastern portion of Ukraine) it would be a historical parallel to the 1956 Hungary revolt.

For those too young, that crushing of the Hungarian revolt was compelling evidence of the Soviet’s not having ‘changed their spots’ after Stalin’s death in 1953. But should Putin invade Ukraine, it will conversely pose problems for Obama’s rationale in his foreign policy and in his rationale in downsizing of the US military to a peacetime status.