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	Comments on: Pity the poor pollsters	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: DirtyJobsGuy		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422793</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DirtyJobsGuy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2012 12:28:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422793</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Low response rate is a huge issue because it depends on the willingness of the contact to complete the process.   Not only is the number of questions important, but any perceived bias in the pollster can cause a non response.     Given that most conservatives/tea party types consider pollsters (media sponsored) as part of the MSM, they will be reluctant to respond.  My guess is this introduces a huge bias (10% or more?) towards the dems.     Party affiliation may be a good marker for this.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Low response rate is a huge issue because it depends on the willingness of the contact to complete the process.   Not only is the number of questions important, but any perceived bias in the pollster can cause a non response.     Given that most conservatives/tea party types consider pollsters (media sponsored) as part of the MSM, they will be reluctant to respond.  My guess is this introduces a huge bias (10% or more?) towards the dems.     Party affiliation may be a good marker for this.</p>
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		<title>
		By: T		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422437</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[T]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 16:32:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422437</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neoneocon,

Agreed.  As for my point several threads ago, there is unconscious bias, conscious bias and downright misrepresentation (aka fraud).  I would place that particular PPP poll in the last category.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neoneocon,</p>
<p>Agreed.  As for my point several threads ago, there is unconscious bias, conscious bias and downright misrepresentation (aka fraud).  I would place that particular PPP poll in the last category.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422431</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 16:12:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422431</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[T: as far as that 9% Republican poll goes---well, Missouri does lean Republican.  But not by 9%.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;According to this&lt;/a&gt;, more like 2%.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>T: as far as that 9% Republican poll goes&#8212;well, Missouri does lean Republican.  But not by 9%.  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states" rel="nofollow">According to this</a>, more like 2%.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422425</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 15:52:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422425</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[SteveH: but actually (I don&#039;t have time to find the link right now, but I&#039;ve seen this statistic a couple of times) party affiliation matters a great deal this time.  Something like 90% or more of Republicans plan to vote for Romney, and something close to that of Democrats say they plan to vote for Obama.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SteveH: but actually (I don&#8217;t have time to find the link right now, but I&#8217;ve seen this statistic a couple of times) party affiliation matters a great deal this time.  Something like 90% or more of Republicans plan to vote for Romney, and something close to that of Democrats say they plan to vote for Obama.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422423</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 15:49:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422423</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[davisbr: if you use US Cellular, all incoming calls are free minutes.

Just sayin.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>davisbr: if you use US Cellular, all incoming calls are free minutes.</p>
<p>Just sayin.</p>
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		<title>
		By: davisbr		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422419</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[davisbr]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 15:34:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422419</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#039;ve cooperated with phone pollsters a few times over the years.

But the last one was about a week ago, to my cell phone, and I just flat out said no.

First, I was pretty busy with work-related issues. 

Second, and more importantly, it was going to take 15 minutes plus to get through this one. On my cell phone.

I laughed at the lady when she told me how long it would take, after she followed up with &quot;...was now a good time?&quot;

I replied by asking if she knew that this was a cell number, and remarked that it was &lt;i&gt;never&lt;/i&gt; going to be a good time. &lt;i&gt;It was a cell call.&lt;/i&gt;

Oh, all very politely, of course. I&#039;m generally not overtly mean with people who are just trying to do their job. (With managers, I&#039;m not nearly as forgiving.)

But.

Y&#039;know? - I &lt;i&gt;pay&lt;/i&gt; for my cell minutes during the day.

What the hell is wrong with these morons.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve cooperated with phone pollsters a few times over the years.</p>
<p>But the last one was about a week ago, to my cell phone, and I just flat out said no.</p>
<p>First, I was pretty busy with work-related issues. </p>
<p>Second, and more importantly, it was going to take 15 minutes plus to get through this one. On my cell phone.</p>
<p>I laughed at the lady when she told me how long it would take, after she followed up with &#8220;&#8230;was now a good time?&#8221;</p>
<p>I replied by asking if she knew that this was a cell number, and remarked that it was <i>never</i> going to be a good time. <i>It was a cell call.</i></p>
<p>Oh, all very politely, of course. I&#8217;m generally not overtly mean with people who are just trying to do their job. (With managers, I&#8217;m not nearly as forgiving.)</p>
<p>But.</p>
<p>Y&#8217;know? &#8211; I <i>pay</i> for my cell minutes during the day.</p>
<p>What the hell is wrong with these morons.</p>
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		<title>
		By: T		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422411</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[T]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 15:12:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422411</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[SteveH,

You mention the &quot;uncanny absence of Obama bumper stickers.&quot;

IMO this is another &quot;tell&quot; that indicates something is going on that is not represented (at least not yet) in the polls.

I&#039;ve already made th epoint that by itself it doesn&#039;t mean very much, but when added to other like events that are occurring nationwide it implies that something is afoot.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SteveH,</p>
<p>You mention the &#8220;uncanny absence of Obama bumper stickers.&#8221;</p>
<p>IMO this is another &#8220;tell&#8221; that indicates something is going on that is not represented (at least not yet) in the polls.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve already made th epoint that by itself it doesn&#8217;t mean very much, but when added to other like events that are occurring nationwide it implies that something is afoot.</p>
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		<title>
		By: SteveH		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422391</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[SteveH]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 13:56:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422391</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[IMO the flaw is in the use of any weighing based on party affiliation. People will cross lines in voting for President as witnessed by Reagan democrats and Obama republicans. Which makes weighing a rather useless step that pretends such things don&#039;t occur. 

 The uncanny abscence of Obama bumper stickers this year tells anyone with common sense that a party affiliation model is of little or no use in this election.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>IMO the flaw is in the use of any weighing based on party affiliation. People will cross lines in voting for President as witnessed by Reagan democrats and Obama republicans. Which makes weighing a rather useless step that pretends such things don&#8217;t occur. </p>
<p> The uncanny abscence of Obama bumper stickers this year tells anyone with common sense that a party affiliation model is of little or no use in this election.</p>
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		<title>
		By: T		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422367</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[T]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 12:53:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422367</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Perhaps the most important quote from Jay Cost cited above (p.3):

&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt; . . .a big “tell” here is that Obama cannot build any kind of a lead among independent voters. That suggests to me that his advantage is built entirely on Democratic enthusiasm, which right now is above its historical trends and clearly on a post-DNC bump. Nobody in the postwar era has won the presidency by carrying less than 49 percent of independents, and Obama is quite a ways below that mark, even if some polls show him at or above 50 percent nationwide and in the key swing states.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

If Jay Cost is correct, then this answers Brit Humes&#039; question about defying gravity.  Obama is &lt;i&gt;not&lt;/i&gt;. defying gravity, it is only a &quot;David Copperfield effect&quot; in which he temporarily (and under very limited conditions) appears to be in the lead.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps the most important quote from Jay Cost cited above (p.3):</p>
<blockquote cite=""><p> . . .a big “tell” here is that Obama cannot build any kind of a lead among independent voters. That suggests to me that his advantage is built entirely on Democratic enthusiasm, which right now is above its historical trends and clearly on a post-DNC bump. Nobody in the postwar era has won the presidency by carrying less than 49 percent of independents, and Obama is quite a ways below that mark, even if some polls show him at or above 50 percent nationwide and in the key swing states.</p></blockquote>
<p>If Jay Cost is correct, then this answers Brit Humes&#8217; question about defying gravity.  Obama is <i>not</i>. defying gravity, it is only a &#8220;David Copperfield effect&#8221; in which he temporarily (and under very limited conditions) appears to be in the lead.</p>
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		<title>
		By: T		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2012/09/25/pity-the-poor-pollsters/#comment-422362</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[T]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2012 12:41:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=20339#comment-422362</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[. . . and this today from Jay Cost:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-tilted-toward-obama_653067.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>. . . and this today from Jay Cost:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-tilted-toward-obama_653067.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-tilted-toward-obama_653067.html</a></p>
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