. . . right now, we are seeing a surge in Democratic enthusiasm, and polls that do a poor job of differentiating enthusiastic non-voters from enthusiastic voters are going to overestimate Obama’s margin.

the link:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/inside_the_poll_ercoaster_KyrxdXSzSgT6knwSlc4m7K

From The Onion (H/T The Anchoress):

Media Having Trouble Finding Right Angle On Obama’s Double-Homicide

The link:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/media-having-trouble-finding-right-angle-on-obamas,2703/

When a liberal has lost The Onion . . . .

There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com, that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Romney somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls

The link:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/

That’s 55% Romney 45% Obama and 320-340 electoral votes for Romney.

Sorry if there was confusion.

The Producers—one of the best movies ever made. (OT look up the film on IMDB, you’ll find that the heavy set fellow who plays Goehring is a former NJ (NY?) policeman who also originated the roll of Mr. Cellophane in the original production of Chicago).

Yes, I do agree that 2010 was not a fluke. I have gone on record expecting a Romney win 55% to 45% in the popular vote and 320 to 340 Electoral votes.

Oh! and you remind me of a few other tells to add to my list:

– Obama only ahead by +7 in New Jersey
– Linda McMahon(R) leading for the Senate seat in CT
– WI and perhaps MN in play (Univ CO study gives Romney MN)
– Obama flag (see Instapundit 8:03 PM)
– Obama flag with bloodstained Benghazi wall (Instapundit)

But my all out favorite, which does not yet exist, will be Obama speaking from a lectern adorned with the Seal of the Former President of the United States

Wait for it . . . . .

IMO 2010 was not a fluke, and I assume you agree. So while I do not see a Reagan tsunami ahead, I do see a comfortable margin for Romney in the popular vote and I also think the electoral vote will push R&R well above 300. Be of good cheer.

PS – Please excuse the grammatical errors in my previous post; I’m surfing while watching The Producers on DVD.

I repeat my belief that there will be three classes of voters this November:

1) Pro-Romney
2) Anti-Obama
and
3) Pro-Obama

IMO any anti-Romney votes will not be stastically signiificant and I believe that we have no clue as to how large group number two is (I’m thinking tsunami, Big Gulp, Taco Grande here).

I think the Obamites know this too, that’s why all their campaign efforts are designed to make Obama’s re-election appear to be a fait accompli so that as many as possible from group 2 never make it to the polls. They forget, however that there are down-ticket races that are doing the opposite—urging exactly those same voters to get to the polls to vote for down ticket Dems.

Remember even Obama’s mother-in-law said she and the girls would be living in Hawaii in 2013; so unless it’s splitsville for Barry and Michelle . . . .

Many people who are not members of the liberal elitist clan (people with a college education who will never vote for anyone other than a a democrat) are fearful. Many of the fearful ones voted for BHO in 2008 because they wrote their hopes on the blank slate the MSM created. The slate is not blank in 2012, same as 2010. 2010 was the harbinger.

As T states above, BHO has alienated many voters who traditionally vote democrat. So, while I agree that the Obama zombies in the black & hispanic communities, and those who self-identify as liberals will vote for BHO; I submit their level of enthusiasm is nowhere near 2008. Victory will be determined by desire, as in 2010 by the anti-Obama (Pelosi & Reid) voters have the stronger desire.

As far as the polls go, I believe many polled who voted for BHO in 2008 are very reluctant to admit to a pollster, a family member, a neighbor, or a casual acquaintance in the unemployment line that they will not vote for Obama in 2012. Be of good cheer.

“my point is that the Gallup poll at least (I’m not sure about the others) acknowledged that Reagan had the lead and would be the winner.”

And yet we dare not forget that this cycle Gallup operates under the threat of a lawsuit from the adminsitration. So the real question is just how trustworthy IS Gallup this cycle? I’m not saying thery’re NOT trustworthy, I’m saying that their veracity and credibility have perhaps been tainted and we simply do not have enough information to know for sure.

You reinforce the point I’ve been making. I have occasionally noted various “tells” at this blog. Each, in and of itself, is meaningless, but when taken as a whole I believe that they are indicative of something going on. You mention “there’s almost NO ONE in open chat defending the bastard.” That’s a tell; and even on the liberal websites, their defense of Obama is never a defense of his performance (as if it could be).

But there is more:

– Chik-Fil-A day;
– Empty Chair day;
– very few new Obama 2012 bumper stickers (it’s almost as if many of his supporters are embarassed to admit it);
– the Obama welcome to SUX billboard;
– the tenuous hold Obama has on a lead with any reasonable poll even given a slavish in-the-tank media (if the media’s all out best effort is a tie, what does that really say about Obama’s ground game?);
– the undervote in the 2012 PA primary (almost the equivalent of the entire Obama vote of the city of Philadelphia; I don’t have info on other states’ undervote);
– 47% Obama rejection already in 2008;
– no coherent defense of his record;
– the war on coal (the United Mine Workers has voiced no support for Obama);
– “You didn’t build that!” Business owners and individuals who pride themselves on working for a living
– the bitter clingers of Pennsylvania
– the Cairo and Benghazi attacks were a film protest; shame on us for such a film;
– he promised to half the deficit in his first term;
– he promised to will close Gitmo;
– he cancelled missle defense for Eastern Europe;

and the list continues both ad infinitum and ad nausaum. There is one promise he has kept–that he would (at least attempt) to transform America. There’s another promise he made—a one term proposition–that we will make him keep on Nov 6th.