Also – Romney’s statements of ‘nice guy, but in over his head’, may resonate with voters. While anathema to hard-right Tea Partiers/Palinistas like myself, it gives people a “non-racist’ reason to not vote for him. They still can like him, but didn’t grow in office.

One reason why people tend to vote for the incumbent is that to do otherwise means they that they accept they were wrong, and people don’t like to be wrong. This statement gives them an out – *they* did nothing wrong, he did.

Psychologically brilliant, Team Romney.

June 13th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Unless he can produce evidence of an absolutely disqualifying issue, think inoperable brain cancer or perhaps a disabling accident, . . .
———–

I won’t accept any sickness excuse note from a doctor in Wisconsin.

Even were Owebama to die before the election, I’d want the death certificate forensically analysed by documents experts. It not like Owebama has a track record with his produced documents and legitimacy.

Michigan will be interesting because although it is heavily Democrat and Obama has an edge with the auto bailout, Romney’s family has a legacy in that state. If coupled with dissillusionment in Obama, Romney could conceivably carry MI.

My interests lie in states that no one is currently discussing. MA, Romney is a resident and was gov. How well was he received by MA voters and would they back him in the upcoming? NJ, in the recent upswing in Chris Christie’s favorability, could those coattails carry enough pro-Romney influence that NJ could go red? (like PA, NJ did vote for a Republican gov) I’m not saying that either will go red, but even seriously wondering about two historically true-blue states says, I think, something about the tenor of the times.

No matter how eloquent is his announcement that he has decided not to run, the vast majority of black voters will treat this as being thrown under the bus. Black turnout will plummet, and some of those who vote will pull the lever for the Republican. A couple of dozen “safe” Democrat house seats will be lost, and the Republicans might just get to 60 in the Senate.

This reaction will continue into 2014 and probably 2016. It would be virtually certain that the Republicans would get to 67 Senate seats in 2014, and might even reach a 2/3 rds majority in the house.

Barring total malfeasance by the Republicans, the Democrats would find themselves a minority party for a generation.

They made their bed with Obama, and to door to the bedroom is locked tight.

There is a very interesting phenomenon about the interaction between his approval rating and his head to head matchup with Romney. It’s a little tough to use gallup for this because the matchup poll is a 7 day moving average, but you can see it in other polling as well.

One would generally expect the spread in Obama’s support in the head to head poll to track his approval numbers. So for example if Obama’s head to head polling is 3% behind his approval they should rise and fall together. Generally they do not. On a number of occasions Obama’s approval numbers have bounced up to 50% but his reelect numbers against Romney have not held their spread. This is also true on the down side, even when Obama’s approval was at 44% his head to head numbers never fell below 44%. Lately Obama’s head to head numbers float between 44% and 47% averaging about 45.5%. This is very dangerous territory for an incumbent.

A number of recent national polls which publish internals have sampled various forms of a “deserves reelection” question. Even in polls which showed an approval rating of 49%-51% his reelection numbers were at or below 45%. The number among independents was much lower.

On the margins (among moderates and unaffiliated voters) job approval responses tend to be more sensitive to short term news. Killing a terrorist, or bad (good) job reports, or stock market shifts. The reelect question tends to measure voter sentiment about the over all record and performance of a president and his expected future performance.

So at least at this point, there is a significant chunk of voters (perhaps 5%) who may not be sure about Romney, but are sure they do not want a 2nd term, even when they approve of some recent action by Obama.

When you more of them to do the job, they’re bad quality.

I learned a lesson from Wisconsin. Don’t let the polls over concern you. They are a device of the Left.

And “likability” polls do not directly translate into votes.

A few quotes: “I’m beginning to think that there is a distinct possibility that Obama completely loses it at some point in this campaign. I wouldn’t put it as likely, but definitely possible. Why? He’s a dishonest, thin-skinned, immature, boastful, narcissistic ego-maniac with a track record of failure and incompetence who is facing the first real opposition of his life….
…
he’s blamed Bush and cried about racism, while producing a record of staggering ineptitude. The only achievements are his record for numerous lavish vacations and the regularity of his golf outings. But this is what we should have expected from a man who thought himself worthy of an autobiography before he’d ever done anything, was unable to write it, used a ghost writer, and palmed off a work of fiction populated by imaginary characters. Obama is Gertrude Stein’s Oakland. There’s no there there. ”

Lots more.

Another option may well be in play; how about the “Bradley Effect?” It may simply be that many people are reluctant to voice their disapproval/lack of support for the first black (actually mixed-race) president for fear of being labeled racist or for fear of having to defend that they are not.

Secondly, one must look very carefully at the polls. What is the sample weighting and how were the polls conducted (this latter usually never published).

Take PA as an example. If one looks at the county map

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

one sees a state that is predominantly Red. If one polls primarily in the Phila area one will get a sampling that includes swing voters AND Republicans who are favorably disposed to Obama; poll in the outlying counties and the reverse is true.

Needless to say, the media (especially those that sponsor polls) will mostly report results that are liberal-leaning.

Obama is currently losing support; losing black supprot in NC (and if there, where else?), Jewish support across the country, and he’s seeing his support among women eroding. His 2008 campaign was based upon hollow platitudes with the cooperation of a compliant media; his 2012 campaign is no different. His 2008 campaign suceeded because he could pose as all things to all people. Now, he has a history and a record.

I know part of the explanation is that Obama’s popularity was never based on logic. I suspect the only thing that could get his approval rating below 45% would be if he were to gain weight and become bald. Little matters like treason and gross incompetence simply aren’t that important in a world where real poverty and enslavement are inconceivable.