But still, Intrade has been very accurate. Sometimes I wonder if insiders who have knowledge the rest of us don’t have might be betting there.

I’m a strong believer in http://www.intrade.com . It’s the only place I know of where people back their opinions with real money. In the 2004 campaign of Bush v. Kerry, Intrade betting occurred for how each state’s electoral votes would go. To the best of my memory, Intrade called every state right…even the close swing states.

Currently, Intrade says that the probability of Romney getting nominated is 44.8% (and it’s rising). The probability of Perry getting nominated is 26.6% (and it’s falling).

The Intrade probability of Obama getting reelected is 47.3% (and falling). The probability of the USA going into recession during 2012 is 43.6% (and rising).

All that tells me that, as of now, Romney has a very good chance of being our next president.

Any other GOP candidate, it is all down-side. He or she is going to be subjected to intense scrutiny, It is probably not going to be as bad as it was for Palin, because it was she, rather than McCain, who threatened Obama. But the sheen has come off the light-bringer, and the urge to go to any extremes to defend him from criticism and scrutiny has abated. Still, Perry would be hammered on immigration and his crony capitalist tendencies, and Romney would suffer for his religion, his flip-flopping and Romneycare. I don’t think anyone else has a shot at this stage. Maybe Santorum, if Perry continues to shoot himself in the foot.

I think the infusion of Tea Party blood will give us better choices in the future. I rather like Tim Scott. In an irony the racist left ignores, he won his primary against the son of Strom Thurmond in a white district. Allen West failed on a couple of votes, but has a chance to win me back. Some of the new governors may also emerge as natural leaders.

Maybe he’s angling for a post in the Palin administration? I would not want Gingrich as President but would like to see him as an advisor or Cabinet member.

However, her electability is very much in question — ala the polls that say many Repubs don’t want her to run.

I keep reading about Palin’s negs and unelectability. Those same voices are not discussing her positions and prospective initiatives. All y’all (and outside these comments) are mutually reinforcing a fear with little foundation. She doesn’t have to win any lefty votes to be elected. Embrace the polarization.

All it will require is one prominent political changer to say out loud that Palin could win after all. One Republicanoid voice to acknowledge that there is something valuable and electable in her conservative and anti-fascist platform. Then the entire eggshell of fear over “electability” shatters.

I have already seen cracks in the shell, like Gingrich’s comments on the crony capitalism speech. The consummate establishment insider candidate thinks Caribou Barbie offers substance? What…? Hmm, maybe we should listen a bit more to what she has become in the past three years. Why do we hate her again?

The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn’t yet announced whether she’ll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.