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	Comments on: Down and down the Dow goes, where it stops&#8230;	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 17:07:37 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Artfldgr		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259583</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artfldgr]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 17:07:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259583</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[1 million squared times 64 / 300,000,000 = 213,333

Average/Mean salary... about 40k

Don Carlos... see a problem here?

[img]i800.photobucket.com/albums/yy282/quekjonathan/FederalReserveMoneyPrintingResearch.jpg?t=1265243693[/img]

this is where understanding what gold means.. 

ie... not long before obama went into office, gold was 300... to 400...  lets say 400

today, gold is just below 1800... so lets say 1800

every dollar you had when it was 400, is now worth 22 cents

or rather. you would need 4.50 cents to buy what 1 dollar bought then... 

or, to explain why china and other are pissed... 

you only need to pay back a billion with  1 billion dollars only worth 220 million

equivalent DAILY inflation rate... 

Hungary july 1946 /  195% 
Zimbabwe 2008 / 98%
Yugoslavia 1994 /  64% 
Germany 1923 / 20.9% 
Greece 1944 / 17.1% 
China 1949 / 13.4%

now if YOU want to get an idea of what it REALLY is... 
then you cant look at our inflation reports... 

you ahve to look at things like GDP deflator

&lt;b&gt;The GDP deflator is derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP and is considered to be an alternate measure of inflation.&lt;/b&gt;

after all, if you look at the CPI index inflation numbers, which i am sure you are, you are seeing inflation low...  but you also haven&#039;t taken the time to see what they use to calculate it. 

if you look at this number
www.tradingeconomics.com/ChartImg.axd?i=chart_9562cd3a05c347a093c3e8865621e4e2_126.png&#038;g=c764db3d01804d7190eec35ef29035f5

you can see that it NEVER went down... 
AND they start the graph at 1980... 
(care to guess why? the number was too small prior to that to be included)

it just stumbled in the switch over from actual to ESTIMATE....



the problem is that the values are not real as they were in the past!!!!!! 

how is that possible? 

well, what year did the government start giving our money away at a below zero rate?

www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html

if the rate of a loan is less than inflation, then your giving the money away as fast as you can print it. 

the fed interest rate in 1980 was near 20%

if you plot it with the inflation.. you can figure out which years they gave away money for less than nothing

how come inflation didnt arrive? 
because at that time, the money was given away to big people, and they bought FOREIGN assets... so the money never got to circulate in the US... 

ie... they suddenly started using the worlds currency as a counterfeiting operation.. 

just as progressives used democrats and liberals to where their skins as wolves in sheeps clothing

they did the same with our currency, debasing it by gutting its reputation by abusing it with counterfeiting using the real presses... (so you cant take out the fakes)

couple that with the super bills too... 

and what will happen soon as people start tallying in a crisis?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1 million squared times 64 / 300,000,000 = 213,333</p>
<p>Average/Mean salary&#8230; about 40k</p>
<p>Don Carlos&#8230; see a problem here?</p>
<p>[img]i800.photobucket.com/albums/yy282/quekjonathan/FederalReserveMoneyPrintingResearch.jpg?t=1265243693[/img]</p>
<p>this is where understanding what gold means.. </p>
<p>ie&#8230; not long before obama went into office, gold was 300&#8230; to 400&#8230;  lets say 400</p>
<p>today, gold is just below 1800&#8230; so lets say 1800</p>
<p>every dollar you had when it was 400, is now worth 22 cents</p>
<p>or rather. you would need 4.50 cents to buy what 1 dollar bought then&#8230; </p>
<p>or, to explain why china and other are pissed&#8230; </p>
<p>you only need to pay back a billion with  1 billion dollars only worth 220 million</p>
<p>equivalent DAILY inflation rate&#8230; </p>
<p>Hungary july 1946 /  195%<br />
Zimbabwe 2008 / 98%<br />
Yugoslavia 1994 /  64%<br />
Germany 1923 / 20.9%<br />
Greece 1944 / 17.1%<br />
China 1949 / 13.4%</p>
<p>now if YOU want to get an idea of what it REALLY is&#8230;<br />
then you cant look at our inflation reports&#8230; </p>
<p>you ahve to look at things like GDP deflator</p>
<p><b>The GDP deflator is derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP and is considered to be an alternate measure of inflation.</b></p>
<p>after all, if you look at the CPI index inflation numbers, which i am sure you are, you are seeing inflation low&#8230;  but you also haven&#8217;t taken the time to see what they use to calculate it. </p>
<p>if you look at this number<br />
<a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ChartImg.axd?i=chart_9562cd3a05c347a093c3e8865621e4e2_126.png&#038;g=c764db3d01804d7190eec35ef29035f5" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ChartImg.axd?i=chart_9562cd3a05c347a093c3e8865621e4e2_126.png&#038;g=c764db3d01804d7190eec35ef29035f5</a></p>
<p>you can see that it NEVER went down&#8230;<br />
AND they start the graph at 1980&#8230;<br />
(care to guess why? the number was too small prior to that to be included)</p>
<p>it just stumbled in the switch over from actual to ESTIMATE&#8230;.</p>
<p>the problem is that the values are not real as they were in the past!!!!!! </p>
<p>how is that possible? </p>
<p>well, what year did the government start giving our money away at a below zero rate?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html</a></p>
<p>if the rate of a loan is less than inflation, then your giving the money away as fast as you can print it. </p>
<p>the fed interest rate in 1980 was near 20%</p>
<p>if you plot it with the inflation.. you can figure out which years they gave away money for less than nothing</p>
<p>how come inflation didnt arrive?<br />
because at that time, the money was given away to big people, and they bought FOREIGN assets&#8230; so the money never got to circulate in the US&#8230; </p>
<p>ie&#8230; they suddenly started using the worlds currency as a counterfeiting operation.. </p>
<p>just as progressives used democrats and liberals to where their skins as wolves in sheeps clothing</p>
<p>they did the same with our currency, debasing it by gutting its reputation by abusing it with counterfeiting using the real presses&#8230; (so you cant take out the fakes)</p>
<p>couple that with the super bills too&#8230; </p>
<p>and what will happen soon as people start tallying in a crisis?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Artfldgr		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259580</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artfldgr]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 16:33:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259580</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Don Carlos
does your assesment include printing money and loaning it out to the big players at near zero percent interest... 

do you realize that withe devaluation printing, and inflation not being zero, the interest rate is actually BELOW zero? 

you SOUND so erudite... but that is not real, because your points DEPEND on not noticing the whole picture and being right in a section of it. 

now, explain to me how &lt;b&gt;1 million squared times 64&lt;/b&gt; can be paid back by 300 million people when less than 40 percent of them are gainfully employed, and already taxed? 

let me put this in your pipe to smoke

the poor are going to riot when it costs 4 times the amount of dollars to buy the same thing that 1 dollar bought before obama..  

the reason is because welfare cant go up 400 percent to cover expenses... 

think on that one..  
45% are on some form of it.. 

what happe4ns when you take the housing, cell phone cable, and electric entitlements away from 30%? 

care to see videos of the people machine gunning a bus because someone commented to a woman not to spank a child... 

imagine when you take away their money...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don Carlos<br />
does your assesment include printing money and loaning it out to the big players at near zero percent interest&#8230; </p>
<p>do you realize that withe devaluation printing, and inflation not being zero, the interest rate is actually BELOW zero? </p>
<p>you SOUND so erudite&#8230; but that is not real, because your points DEPEND on not noticing the whole picture and being right in a section of it. </p>
<p>now, explain to me how <b>1 million squared times 64</b> can be paid back by 300 million people when less than 40 percent of them are gainfully employed, and already taxed? </p>
<p>let me put this in your pipe to smoke</p>
<p>the poor are going to riot when it costs 4 times the amount of dollars to buy the same thing that 1 dollar bought before obama..  </p>
<p>the reason is because welfare cant go up 400 percent to cover expenses&#8230; </p>
<p>think on that one..<br />
45% are on some form of it.. </p>
<p>what happe4ns when you take the housing, cell phone cable, and electric entitlements away from 30%? </p>
<p>care to see videos of the people machine gunning a bus because someone commented to a woman not to spank a child&#8230; </p>
<p>imagine when you take away their money&#8230;</p>
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		<title>
		By: Parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259449</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 21:12:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259449</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;.. the country with the worse S.&#038;P. rating is likely to have proven to be the safer bet.&quot;

So I should buy Greek bonds?  ;-)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;.. the country with the worse S.&amp;P. rating is likely to have proven to be the safer bet.&#8221;</p>
<p>So I should buy Greek bonds?  😉</p>
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		<title>
		By: br549		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259370</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[br549]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 09:19:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259370</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Obama was off by 2T as well back in 2009. I just can&#039;t get my head around that much debt. 

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Watching that puppy spin should make anybody literally crap their pants. 
It&#039;s not complicated. There are those who have made it so. Those who want something for nothing, and who have been electing those who are willing to give it to them for a vote.

To quote Ry Cooder in a song from Bop &#039;til You Drop, &quot;There ain&#039;t no way outta here without a fight.&quot; We may as well get the show on the road. Our kids and grandkids have nothing to do with this. Yet they will fight, and they will pay.
That&#039;s bullshit.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama was off by 2T as well back in 2009. I just can&#8217;t get my head around that much debt. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.usdebtclock.org/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.usdebtclock.org/</a></p>
<p>Watching that puppy spin should make anybody literally crap their pants.<br />
It&#8217;s not complicated. There are those who have made it so. Those who want something for nothing, and who have been electing those who are willing to give it to them for a vote.</p>
<p>To quote Ry Cooder in a song from Bop &#8217;til You Drop, &#8220;There ain&#8217;t no way outta here without a fight.&#8221; We may as well get the show on the road. Our kids and grandkids have nothing to do with this. Yet they will fight, and they will pay.<br />
That&#8217;s bullshit.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259354</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 05:17:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259354</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Promethea: Of course I don&#039;t expect S&amp;P to predict the future.  But I think that&#039;s what &lt;i&gt;they&#039;re&lt;/i&gt; trying to do, and their track record is rather poor (plus, a $2 trillion mistake is pretty large, don&#039;t you think?)  

Did you actually read &lt;a href=&quot;http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/?emc=eta1&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the article that I linked to in the post&lt;/a&gt;?  Here&#039;s a relevant excerpt:

&lt;blockquote&gt;None of this would be a problem if S.&amp;P.’s ratings had performed well. But there is little evidence that they do. The next chart presents a comparison of S.&amp;P. ratings as of June 30, 2006, to the risk of default five years later (on June 30, 2011) as measured by the prices of credit default swaps, financial instruments that pay an investor if there is a default on a bond obligation...

S.&amp;P.’s bond ratings from five years ago would have told you almost nothing about the risk of a default today. They had no insight about the threats in European markets, nor about which countries in Europe were relatively more likely to default. (Norway, which remains among the most solvent countries in the world, had a AAA rating in 2006, but so did Ireland and Spain.)

By comparison, simply looking at a country’s ratio of net debt to G.D.P. would have been a better predictor of default. It wouldn’t have done well by any means: it only explains about 12 percent of default risk. Still, this simple statistical indicator does better than the S.&amp;P. ratings...

Certainly, one might contemplate more sophisticated models than this (for instance, accounting for a country’s inflation rate in addition to its debt seems to be helpful). But when considerably more advanced studies have been published by academic economists like Carmen M. Reinhart, they have come to similar conclusions. Ms. Reinhart found that, although S.&amp;P. rating changes have some value in predicting defaults, they are significantly outperformed by objective, statistical indicators...

In fact, the evidence from the past five years suggests that it may be worthwhile to adopt a contrarian investing strategy that specifically bets against S.&amp;P.’s ratings. If you were trying to predict a country’s default risk today, based on the market’s perception of its default risk two years ago as well as its S.&amp;P. rating at that time, you would find that accounting for S.&amp;P. ratings actually subtracted value from your model. That is, if the market had priced two countries as having a 20 percent default risk in 2009, but one of them had a AA rating from S.&amp;P. and the other had a BB rating, the country with the worse S.&amp;P. rating is likely to have proven to be the safer bet.&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Promethea: Of course I don&#8217;t expect S&#038;P to predict the future.  But I think that&#8217;s what <i>they&#8217;re</i> trying to do, and their track record is rather poor (plus, a $2 trillion mistake is pretty large, don&#8217;t you think?)  </p>
<p>Did you actually read <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/?emc=eta1" rel="nofollow">the article that I linked to in the post</a>?  Here&#8217;s a relevant excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p>None of this would be a problem if S.&#038;P.’s ratings had performed well. But there is little evidence that they do. The next chart presents a comparison of S.&#038;P. ratings as of June 30, 2006, to the risk of default five years later (on June 30, 2011) as measured by the prices of credit default swaps, financial instruments that pay an investor if there is a default on a bond obligation&#8230;</p>
<p>S.&#038;P.’s bond ratings from five years ago would have told you almost nothing about the risk of a default today. They had no insight about the threats in European markets, nor about which countries in Europe were relatively more likely to default. (Norway, which remains among the most solvent countries in the world, had a AAA rating in 2006, but so did Ireland and Spain.)</p>
<p>By comparison, simply looking at a country’s ratio of net debt to G.D.P. would have been a better predictor of default. It wouldn’t have done well by any means: it only explains about 12 percent of default risk. Still, this simple statistical indicator does better than the S.&#038;P. ratings&#8230;</p>
<p>Certainly, one might contemplate more sophisticated models than this (for instance, accounting for a country’s inflation rate in addition to its debt seems to be helpful). But when considerably more advanced studies have been published by academic economists like Carmen M. Reinhart, they have come to similar conclusions. Ms. Reinhart found that, although S.&#038;P. rating changes have some value in predicting defaults, they are significantly outperformed by objective, statistical indicators&#8230;</p>
<p>In fact, the evidence from the past five years suggests that it may be worthwhile to adopt a contrarian investing strategy that specifically bets against S.&#038;P.’s ratings. If you were trying to predict a country’s default risk today, based on the market’s perception of its default risk two years ago as well as its S.&#038;P. rating at that time, you would find that accounting for S.&#038;P. ratings actually subtracted value from your model. That is, if the market had priced two countries as having a 20 percent default risk in 2009, but one of them had a AA rating from S.&#038;P. and the other had a BB rating, the country with the worse S.&#038;P. rating is likely to have proven to be the safer bet.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>
		By: Parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259350</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 05:14:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259350</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;I just don’t understand the people that like and support him. They’re a weirder anomaly than he is.. &quot;

Think zombies.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I just don’t understand the people that like and support him. They’re a weirder anomaly than he is.. &#8221;</p>
<p>Think zombies.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Promethea		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259343</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Promethea]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 04:43:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259343</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[neo . . .

I get the impression from your comments that you expect the S &#038; P and other rating services to predict the future. They&#039;ve already proven that they&#039;re run by human beings who make mistakes. When reading about their ratings, keep in mind that the ratings are based on different variables. 

I invested in several mutual funds that claimed that they used mathematical models to get results. These funds have all performed differently.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>neo . . .</p>
<p>I get the impression from your comments that you expect the S &amp; P and other rating services to predict the future. They&#8217;ve already proven that they&#8217;re run by human beings who make mistakes. When reading about their ratings, keep in mind that the ratings are based on different variables. </p>
<p>I invested in several mutual funds that claimed that they used mathematical models to get results. These funds have all performed differently.</p>
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		<title>
		By: gs		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259331</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gs]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 02:16:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259331</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m seeing reports that S&#038;P may get hauled before Congress because of the downgrade.

Yeah, &lt;i&gt;that&#039;ll&lt;/i&gt; restore the markets&#039; confidence. 

Morons.

At some point people start saying that we need a Cromwell who will send these idiots home.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m seeing reports that S&amp;P may get hauled before Congress because of the downgrade.</p>
<p>Yeah, <i>that&#8217;ll</i> restore the markets&#8217; confidence. </p>
<p>Morons.</p>
<p>At some point people start saying that we need a Cromwell who will send these idiots home.</p>
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		<title>
		By: SteveH		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259327</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[SteveH]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 01:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259327</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I kinda understand grievance filled Obama raised by commies. I just don&#039;t understand the people that like and support him. They&#039;re a weirder anomaly than he is and may go down in history as the bigger story.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I kinda understand grievance filled Obama raised by commies. I just don&#8217;t understand the people that like and support him. They&#8217;re a weirder anomaly than he is and may go down in history as the bigger story.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Baklava		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2011/08/08/down-the-dow-goes-where-it-stops/#comment-259319</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Baklava]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 00:10:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=8633#comment-259319</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo wrote, &quot;&lt;em&gt;Thanks for saying I’m politically astute. But I’m not so sure I am. What I think is my stronger suit is critical thinking.&lt;/em&gt;

Agreed.

I liked the post on Instapundit that said:

The DOW dropped 637. But without the Obama speech it would&#039;ve dropped 737. Therefore Obama saved or created 100 DOW points. 

HA HA HA HA ~! 8)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo wrote, &#8220;<em>Thanks for saying I’m politically astute. But I’m not so sure I am. What I think is my stronger suit is critical thinking.</em></p>
<p>Agreed.</p>
<p>I liked the post on Instapundit that said:</p>
<p>The DOW dropped 637. But without the Obama speech it would&#8217;ve dropped 737. Therefore Obama saved or created 100 DOW points. </p>
<p>HA HA HA HA ~! 8)</p>
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