I think you misspelled that: “DOPEY-changey”.

Easy mistake.

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A “Racist”? Yes. Yes I am.

Great… your question got answered.

“U.S. Shelves Nuclear-Missile Shield”

Now, the weakness doesn’t necessarily come in the shelving of the plan – missile defense technology is not really proven at this time – but rather in the way the plan was dropped. As Fausta has accurately noted, “the entire foreign policy has been, “appease our enemies, drop our friends.”

Iran could be hoping Obama can forestall an Israeli strike until Iranian defenses are improved to the point of limiting the effectiveness of a strike.

Or until Iranian fissionable material production facilities are decentralized and spread out enough so that an Israeli strike would be somewhat ineffective and allow the production to continue with minimal abatement.

Or Iran may be using as bait the aiming, launching and delivery systems that they have no intention of using anyway.

Or Iran may already have enough fissionable material for a devastating EMP and is waiting for an Israeli action in order to justify the Iranian strike as a defensive action — waiting for the most advantageous moment propaganda-wise.

The Israelis may be thinking that if they destroy the launching facilities that they have done their job because what good is fissionable material without the means of delivery?

From the Iranian point of view if your goal is an EMP strike, you use the unneeded delivery systems as decoys but continue with the refining of the fissionable material until you amass enough to deal with the infidel once and for all.

There’s other factors: How much fissionable material has Iran bought on the black market? How much has it secretly bought from North Korea? How much has it secretly bought from Russia? Is China playing a role? Pakistan? Are intelligence estimates of the number of centrifuges possessed by Iran accurate?

Huxley: grackle: Tell someone else how to suck eggs. Google “emp hardening”.

I stand corrected. There is such a thing as “hardening” against EMP. Thank you for pointing that out, Huxley. My thinking was into a mode where “hardening” meant blast protection.

grackle: I doubt the Obama admin is giving Israel the nod; they just know that Israel has little choice if the US won’t do it, and if Israel does it, it’s no skin off Obama. He gets to have his hands clean and toughen up his negotiating stance towards Israel.

No doubt there’s a certain amount of, not “hardening,” but shielding from the electromagnetic pulse.

grackle: Tell someone else how to suck eggs. Google “emp hardening”.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203917304574410672271269390.html

According to Stephens, this is not a desirable outcome for anyone. To paraphrase Neo’s post on Updike (an excellent thread by the way), peace is contingent upon the threat of violence. If so, then outsourcing our role as sheriff in these parts has severely curbed the level of violence we can use to make peace. Israel doesn’t know if it can successfully call the strike, either politically or militarily.

We would have had a higher rate of success at preventing war if we hadn’t made it publicly known that our threat was off the table. Recent events in East Asia and the Middle East are a testament to that.

My take is that Obama is not serious about stopping Iran, so there is no longer any question that the Israelis will have to do it.

The amount of devastation possible is a function of amount of fissionable material and the height of the material when ignited — creating a cone of electrical deadness beneath the ignition.

No doubt there’s a certain amount of, not “hardening,” but shielding from the electromagnetic pulse. Emergency communication systems between certain groups. It’s not the blast that’s the problem. Every vehicle, every water pumping station, every refrigeration system, every radio, every TV, every computer, all these will cease working. Anything that runs on electricity will be rendered useless. Think about it.

One thing that could be tried if it happens is to walk out. Most would not make it out. The food and water would run out within days. There would be no police or military in the dead zone.

There would be a flood of refugees like the world has never seen. In fact I can imagine that refugees might be turned back at the edge of devastation. “Don’t come out of there to eat all OUR food.”

Or you could stay and try to survive. I have several pistols and one pump 12 gauge that would come in handy if I could hang on to them and a limited amount of ammo. Guns would still work. Bows, crossbows, knives, axes, hatchets, the odd sword, clubs, hammers turned into weapons — all would be good to have. You wouldn’t be able to survive alone, you would have join a group.

The economy — destroyed. Our institutions, what would be left — overwhelmed. I’m thinking our government, if any government were left, would surrender and sue for peace.

I, too, hope Israel will cut the Iranian water off. A nice trick would be if our government acted like it did not want an Israeli strike but was secretly giving Netanyahu the nod. Another faint hope, considering the fellow in the Whitehouse.