I think Russia is trying to use Iran as a proxy and counterbalance to US allies in the region.

Doesn’t mean they have discovered their soulmates, just that the Russians think the mullahs can be useful for their own ends.

I don’t think Russia would really have an influence in keeping Iran *intact*, as whether their revolution succeeds or fails I doubt the nation will disintegrate into disparate parts.

I do think Russia is invested in selling Iran weaponry. Russia needs money and has never had qualms about selling weapons to any despot in the past – why should they get squeamish now?

Even advanced weapons are available for the right price.

On the other hand, I don’t think Russia is actively helping Iran with it’s nuclear program.

Russia is a heck of a lot closer to Iran than the US is, and communism was never loved by the mullahs either – and now that Russia is nominally capitalistic I don’t see them really changing their views of Russians other than to see them as a convenience.

If Russia can help Iran become a powerhouse in the region, and help them with their oil production (remember, Russia is an oil exporting nation), the Iranians are then stuck with the Russians as more or less their sponsors and source of weaponry.

If the Iranians attempt to disentangle themselves from the Russians, they lose their source of high tech weapons and an ally in the UN.

What role do you see Russia playing in its role to help prop up the regime of the Mullahs? What would Russia do to help the Islamic Republic remain intact? It would seem Russia is very invested in Iran getting nukes and other advanced weaponry. I think their motive is more than just pecuniary.

If you have think about it for a while, forget it.

Of course, the problem is that, by waiting almost two weeks to do this, it’s obvious the statement was made under duress (even the LAT was comparing the Messiah to Carter – that’s when you know the One has stepped in the dog’s business), which unfortunately minimizes its impact.

The mullahs will instantly appreciate that Obama said this to deflect domestic criticism, not because he actually believes it.

Had there not been Twitter and Facebook to punditize over, our press would have been in a real corner about how to spin this story.

Also, I almost think Obama was personally put out by what’s happening over there. He was so hoping that with calm and wise words he’d tame those mullahs while the rest of the world looked on in wonder and admiration. But those goddam little brats just stole his show!!!!

Let not forgot Mousavi old work was the architect of Hezbollah, some sources now in Iran said Hezbollah fighter s are already inside Iran.

in this age of telecommunications.

Occam’s Beard
You are right but the Mullah also have found their way to make it work for them .

Please read this

maker sold spy system to Iran

that if we were not free, and the obama change was complete, then there would be no outside to appeal to, and just cutting down the whole crowd the first day would have been the option.

if we fall, the world falls, so if we are falling, then you can expect that there is no where to send our twitters to for hope.

Something to keep in mind here is to compare the current situation in Iran to what happened behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War.

You did have uprisings behind the Soviet sphere of influence that were crushed, and all the West could do was either watch or go to war – so they watched.

The mindset of the West I think at the time these events occurred was that the repressiveness of communism would be around indefinitely – perhaps even permanently – and all the West could do was try to contain it.

This also led to “intellectuals” in the West rationalizing how communism wasn’t really that bad, how the West should engage communism in dialogue, and indeed in many circles the supposed intellectual class actually embraced the ideology.

This political arrangement itself was the result of how WWII ended, and the governments of the various nations were seen by the general public of those nations as being more or less legitimate as old pre-war political classes and politicians assumed roles in the new governments being established under USSR direction. In the case of East Germany, for instance, many of the new communist party politicians had been Nazis under the Hitler regime.

We can disagree on whether this legitmacy was real or not, but the fact remains they had at least the patina of legitimacy with the result that the average citizen accepted their rule – and even in many cases had a dim view of those who would question authority as they were continuously informed of how dangerous and corrupt the West was.

Yet, even with all of that power and influence and total subjegation, you still had uprisings occasionally.

Eventually the legitimacy of the governments were openly called into question as the West didn’t attack, it was clear the West was pulling light years ahead of the East in freedom, technology and living standards, the old fears about the West instilled in the populations of Eastern Europe failed to materialize, Western leaders condemned specific acts of repression by the ruling regimes, and their economies hit rock bottom.

All the citizens had to do to look at comparisons was check across the border into the Western nations.

At that point, it was only a matter of time before those governments collapsed. I won’t say overthrown because that’s not what generally happened for the most part.

Things collapsed, the authority institutions were viewed as corrupt and illegitimate, and people ceased to obey as they openly questioned authority.

If you are a tyrannical government, you can only kill so many before you run out of citizens, or before the citizens decide to return the favor and start killing you.

Or, to put it more bluntly, you kill citizen “A” in order to cow citizen “B” and make citizen “B” do as he’s told in order to not receive a capital sentence as was applied to citizen “A”.

You don’t have to kill everyone, only enough to make examples to frighten everyone else into line.

Things fall apart when it gets so bad the citizens no longer respond with fear to citizen “A” being killed, but rather respond with resentment and anger.

This leads to a loss of legitimacy for the authority institutions, undermining their ability to rule.

Eventually you will hit critical mass as more citizens resist the government than support it.

If that government accepts this loss of public support and legitimacy, it collapses and you have situations such as occurred in Eastern Europe where the guards simply stopped shooting anyone trying to tear down the Berlin wall.

(I don’t think such an event will ever occur in China as the people seem by and large to accept the legitimacy of communism without real question, and you just don’t have conditions similar to europe.)

At any rate, when such a collapse occurs, it seems to happen rapidly.

If that government resists, and tries to hold onto power as brutally as possible, well….then you have a far more violent situation and something is going to give in a very bloody fashion.

I think we are seeing the islamic equivalent of the old Eastern European uprisings, with the added complication that Iran doesn’t have any allies as was the case with the old USSR, and likewise doesn’t have the advantages of larger populations and huge geographic areas to use to their advantage.

There is no gulag dissidents can disappear to, and there are no neighboring nations willing to intervene on the ruling mullah’s behalf and send in tanks to suppress the people, and there are no natural resources in such vast quantities that they can survive for decades in total isolation.

The best the mullahs can do is bring in foreign fighters – which will only exacerbate the distance between the people and the government – or rely more completely on violent crackdowns by the Revolutionary Guard – which will have the same long term effect as they are seen as enforcing ruling control rather than enforcing legitimate law and order.

I think we will see the pattern of Eastern Europe repeated in Iran, just on a smaller and more accelerated scale.