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	Comments on: Science and casualty figures in Iraq: lancing the Lancet boil	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: Gringo		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52593</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gringo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 14:03:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52593</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Another nail in the coffin for the Lancet study.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/09/AR2008010902793.html?sub=AR]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another nail in the coffin for the Lancet study.<br />
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/09/AR2008010902793.html?sub=AR" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/09/AR2008010902793.html?sub=AR</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Gringo		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52469</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gringo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jan 2008 19:06:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52469</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;It’s pretty obvious that some commenters here didn’t even read the linked article.&lt;/i&gt;
Exactly. 
Eso es.

When one defends the Lancet study on the basis of its being &quot;scientific,&quot; when in fact the National Journal and the IBC rebuttals point out some serious problems with the Lancet study in following &quot;scientific&quot;  procedures, the conclusion is obvious.
And as many commenters have already pointed out, sampling procedures are simply a short-cut for counting. Counting is always preferable.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>It’s pretty obvious that some commenters here didn’t even read the linked article.</i><br />
Exactly.<br />
Eso es.</p>
<p>When one defends the Lancet study on the basis of its being &#8220;scientific,&#8221; when in fact the National Journal and the IBC rebuttals point out some serious problems with the Lancet study in following &#8220;scientific&#8221;  procedures, the conclusion is obvious.<br />
And as many commenters have already pointed out, sampling procedures are simply a short-cut for counting. Counting is always preferable.</p>
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		By: douglas		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52309</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[douglas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 10:53:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52309</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Ooops &lt;i&gt;italics&lt;/i&gt; off.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ooops <i>italics</i> off.</p>
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		<title>
		By: douglas		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52308</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[douglas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 10:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52308</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[From the linked article, one of the more telling passages:
&lt;i&gt;&quot;The terrorized Bosnian populace related tales of brutality so appalling that the visiting Americans dismissed them as absurd rumors: Croatian guerrillas were buying castration devices from the Germans to use on Bosnian men; Serbian snipers were shooting children in the legs and using them as &quot;bait&quot; to bring their parents within range.

In pursuit of an accurate picture, the U.S. health officials toured a hospital in Sarajevo. In the surgical ward, they saw many children in post-operative recovery -- from bullet wounds in their legs. The &quot;absurd&quot; urban myths, apparently, had some truth to them. In the face of such exceptional horror, one of the Americans -- Les Roberts -- experienced an epiphany.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Anyone dumb enough to go into a sectarian war zone and think that people &lt;i&gt;aren&#039;t&lt;/i&gt; doing horrible things to one another is also going to be stupid enough to think that throwing good science under the bus of good intentions is a good idea.

Well, we all know what the road to hell is paved with, don&#039;t we. 

Also from the link:
&lt;i&gt;&quot;Roberts already believed that jihadi attacks were, in part, driven by the international image of the United States. &quot;The greatest threat to U.S. national security [is] the image that the United States is a violator of international laws and order and that there is no means other than violence to curb it,&quot; Roberts wrote in a July 2005 article for Tirman&#039;s center. When NJ asked Roberts about the risk that his estimate would incite more violence, his confidence seemed to waver for the only time during the interview. &quot;This area of study is a minefield,&quot; he said. &quot;The people you are talking about are the same kind of people who deny the Holocaust.&quot; Does it give him qualms that some of those people use his study to recruit suicide bombers? &quot;It does,&quot; he replied after a pause. &quot;My guess is that I&#039;ve provided data that can be narrowly cited to incite hatred. On the other hand, I think it&#039;s worse to have our leaders downplaying the level of violence.&quot;

Personally, I think he&#039;s got blood on his hands.  Apparently didn&#039;t even think things this far through before running ahead with his propaganda.

As for the assertion that, since it&#039;s scientific, it deserves some credence- When the co-author of the earlier study steps back from supporting his former co-authors on their later study, you can really smell the stinking fish.

Of course, some simple math told me that when the study came out.
Iraq: 26,783,383 (July 2006 est.) per CIA world factbook.
26,783,383/655,000=40.89
So if one takes the study at it’s word, one out of every 41 Iraqis had been killed within the last four years. (at the time of the study)  Since we know that the violence isn’t uniform, that would imply that in some areas it would be far worse.  You’d be seeing towns whose entire populations have been decimated.  Imagine one out of every forty of your acquaintances being gone.  No way would that be unreported in the MSM, or for that matter, anything less than obvious.  You wouldn’t need a survey to tell you things were that bad.

It&#039;s pretty obvious that some commenters here didn&#039;t even read the linked article.&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the linked article, one of the more telling passages:<br />
<i>&#8220;The terrorized Bosnian populace related tales of brutality so appalling that the visiting Americans dismissed them as absurd rumors: Croatian guerrillas were buying castration devices from the Germans to use on Bosnian men; Serbian snipers were shooting children in the legs and using them as &#8220;bait&#8221; to bring their parents within range.</p>
<p>In pursuit of an accurate picture, the U.S. health officials toured a hospital in Sarajevo. In the surgical ward, they saw many children in post-operative recovery &#8212; from bullet wounds in their legs. The &#8220;absurd&#8221; urban myths, apparently, had some truth to them. In the face of such exceptional horror, one of the Americans &#8212; Les Roberts &#8212; experienced an epiphany.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Anyone dumb enough to go into a sectarian war zone and think that people <i>aren&#8217;t</i> doing horrible things to one another is also going to be stupid enough to think that throwing good science under the bus of good intentions is a good idea.</p>
<p>Well, we all know what the road to hell is paved with, don&#8217;t we. </p>
<p>Also from the link:<br />
<i>&#8220;Roberts already believed that jihadi attacks were, in part, driven by the international image of the United States. &#8220;The greatest threat to U.S. national security [is] the image that the United States is a violator of international laws and order and that there is no means other than violence to curb it,&#8221; Roberts wrote in a July 2005 article for Tirman&#8217;s center. When NJ asked Roberts about the risk that his estimate would incite more violence, his confidence seemed to waver for the only time during the interview. &#8220;This area of study is a minefield,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The people you are talking about are the same kind of people who deny the Holocaust.&#8221; Does it give him qualms that some of those people use his study to recruit suicide bombers? &#8220;It does,&#8221; he replied after a pause. &#8220;My guess is that I&#8217;ve provided data that can be narrowly cited to incite hatred. On the other hand, I think it&#8217;s worse to have our leaders downplaying the level of violence.&#8221;</p>
<p>Personally, I think he&#8217;s got blood on his hands.  Apparently didn&#8217;t even think things this far through before running ahead with his propaganda.</p>
<p>As for the assertion that, since it&#8217;s scientific, it deserves some credence- When the co-author of the earlier study steps back from supporting his former co-authors on their later study, you can really smell the stinking fish.</p>
<p>Of course, some simple math told me that when the study came out.<br />
Iraq: 26,783,383 (July 2006 est.) per CIA world factbook.<br />
26,783,383/655,000=40.89<br />
So if one takes the study at it’s word, one out of every 41 Iraqis had been killed within the last four years. (at the time of the study)  Since we know that the violence isn’t uniform, that would imply that in some areas it would be far worse.  You’d be seeing towns whose entire populations have been decimated.  Imagine one out of every forty of your acquaintances being gone.  No way would that be unreported in the MSM, or for that matter, anything less than obvious.  You wouldn’t need a survey to tell you things were that bad.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s pretty obvious that some commenters here didn&#8217;t even read the linked article.</i></p>
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		By: J. Peden		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52254</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J. Peden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 23:24:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52254</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;Now, this begs the question of who benefits and who loses from status quo economic development. Just as it offers only exceedingly soft science to “prove” the case that a move from fossil fuels would retard economic development …&quot;
Chris White

I agree: to hell with Big Oil and Big Coal, we need to go much more nuclear asap. To equal France in ratio of nuclear plants to populace, we need 200 more.

But in the meantime, Chris, surely you know that &quot;soft science&quot; China has decided that going full-throttle ahead with the construction of coal-fired electrictity plants to promote its retarded economic development &lt;i&gt;is&lt;/i&gt; its solution to &quot;climate change&quot;  - deciding, in effect, that not producing massive amounts of fossil fuel CO2 in this way would create &lt;i&gt;more of a disaster&lt;/i&gt; to itself and citizens than producing it.

As a result, China has already taken the lead in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and is still constructing one coal-fired plant at a rate of every 5-7 days, which will continue for about the next 7 years.

If you care about civilians and blowback, you might want to actually consider what will likely happen to civilians if underdeveloped countries are prevented from pursuing the &quot;status-quo&quot; fossil fuel energy development dependence which you disparage - just as China has considered it - and what the other side-effects might be to the rest of the World if the underdeveloped don&#039;t develop.

Likewise, you apparently also oppose the &quot;staus quo&quot; partly because you have some kind of visceral dislike for Wal Mart [peace be upon it] and other Big Corporations=Marx&#039;s &quot;Big Industry&quot;? Perhaps you might want to consider what Communism&#039;s unscientific method did to the wellbeing of  &quot;civilians&quot;, and what unscientific Marxist propaganda has done to you.  

At the same time, you also must know that the Kyoto Protocols do exclude countries containing 5 billion of the Earth&#039;s 6.5 billion people from having to follow them, so that the Protocols virtually can&#039;t possibly work on a World-wide basis to stop net increases in fossil fuel CO2 emissions.  The Protocols haven&#039;t even worked where they&#039;ve been applied in Europe.  

And this particular major ipcc Protocol exclusion all by itself  casts considerable doubt upon the ipcc&#039;s own basic conclusions themselves: it looks like the ipcc doesn&#039;t even believe its own disasterized conclusions, or else wants to bring about the allegedly disasterous fossil fuel CO2 emission increase it says it wants to avoid.

You might also want to wonder why the ipcc, according to its own statement, &lt;i&gt;intentionally&lt;/i&gt; does not consider at all the &quot;costs&quot; of its alleged cure to its alleged disease.

Pre-scientific ages excluded, when has any of this kind of action ever been considered &quot;scientific&quot;, and why would anyone think it would benefit very many  &quot;civilians&quot;, whether they are in developed or underdeveloped countries?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Now, this begs the question of who benefits and who loses from status quo economic development. Just as it offers only exceedingly soft science to “prove” the case that a move from fossil fuels would retard economic development …&#8221;<br />
Chris White</p>
<p>I agree: to hell with Big Oil and Big Coal, we need to go much more nuclear asap. To equal France in ratio of nuclear plants to populace, we need 200 more.</p>
<p>But in the meantime, Chris, surely you know that &#8220;soft science&#8221; China has decided that going full-throttle ahead with the construction of coal-fired electrictity plants to promote its retarded economic development <i>is</i> its solution to &#8220;climate change&#8221;  &#8211; deciding, in effect, that not producing massive amounts of fossil fuel CO2 in this way would create <i>more of a disaster</i> to itself and citizens than producing it.</p>
<p>As a result, China has already taken the lead in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and is still constructing one coal-fired plant at a rate of every 5-7 days, which will continue for about the next 7 years.</p>
<p>If you care about civilians and blowback, you might want to actually consider what will likely happen to civilians if underdeveloped countries are prevented from pursuing the &#8220;status-quo&#8221; fossil fuel energy development dependence which you disparage &#8211; just as China has considered it &#8211; and what the other side-effects might be to the rest of the World if the underdeveloped don&#8217;t develop.</p>
<p>Likewise, you apparently also oppose the &#8220;staus quo&#8221; partly because you have some kind of visceral dislike for Wal Mart [peace be upon it] and other Big Corporations=Marx&#8217;s &#8220;Big Industry&#8221;? Perhaps you might want to consider what Communism&#8217;s unscientific method did to the wellbeing of  &#8220;civilians&#8221;, and what unscientific Marxist propaganda has done to you.  </p>
<p>At the same time, you also must know that the Kyoto Protocols do exclude countries containing 5 billion of the Earth&#8217;s 6.5 billion people from having to follow them, so that the Protocols virtually can&#8217;t possibly work on a World-wide basis to stop net increases in fossil fuel CO2 emissions.  The Protocols haven&#8217;t even worked where they&#8217;ve been applied in Europe.  </p>
<p>And this particular major ipcc Protocol exclusion all by itself  casts considerable doubt upon the ipcc&#8217;s own basic conclusions themselves: it looks like the ipcc doesn&#8217;t even believe its own disasterized conclusions, or else wants to bring about the allegedly disasterous fossil fuel CO2 emission increase it says it wants to avoid.</p>
<p>You might also want to wonder why the ipcc, according to its own statement, <i>intentionally</i> does not consider at all the &#8220;costs&#8221; of its alleged cure to its alleged disease.</p>
<p>Pre-scientific ages excluded, when has any of this kind of action ever been considered &#8220;scientific&#8221;, and why would anyone think it would benefit very many  &#8220;civilians&#8221;, whether they are in developed or underdeveloped countries?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Synova		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52252</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Synova]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 21:55:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52252</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The &quot;create more terrorists&quot; argument is logical enough, it just isn&#039;t that simple.

For years now we&#039;ve been hammered with the claim that our presence is creating more terrorists and never has a word been said that Al Qaida&#039;s actions are in any way relevant.

Yet, objectively, what we&#039;ve seen on the ground, and from the very *beginning*, is that locals resent us far less than we&#039;re told they ought to.   Not love us, that&#039;s not what I said, but motivated to rise up and kill themselves to get us out?  No.  Not often and certainly not over the longer term when tribal alliances with Al Qaida against a common enemy have become violent oppressions and the blow-back hasn&#039;t been toward *us*, but toward Al Qaida.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The &#8220;create more terrorists&#8221; argument is logical enough, it just isn&#8217;t that simple.</p>
<p>For years now we&#8217;ve been hammered with the claim that our presence is creating more terrorists and never has a word been said that Al Qaida&#8217;s actions are in any way relevant.</p>
<p>Yet, objectively, what we&#8217;ve seen on the ground, and from the very *beginning*, is that locals resent us far less than we&#8217;re told they ought to.   Not love us, that&#8217;s not what I said, but motivated to rise up and kill themselves to get us out?  No.  Not often and certainly not over the longer term when tribal alliances with Al Qaida against a common enemy have become violent oppressions and the blow-back hasn&#8217;t been toward *us*, but toward Al Qaida.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Hogarth		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52245</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hogarth]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:59:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52245</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Did anyone change their 2004 vote based on this study?  I sure didn&#039;t.  

Scientific rigor or lack thereof aside, it failed in its goal.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did anyone change their 2004 vote based on this study?  I sure didn&#8217;t.  </p>
<p>Scientific rigor or lack thereof aside, it failed in its goal.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52244</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:45:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52244</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Chris White: If you ever want to see what I&#039;ve written on a certain topic (for example, global warming) just type it into the &quot;search&quot; function of this blog on the right sidebar.  If you do that, you&#039;ll see that, among other things, I&#039;ve written &lt;a href=http://neoneocon.com/2007/01/22/scientists-are-political-people-too/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; fairly lengthy piece and &lt;a href=&quot;http://neoneocon.com/2007/08/21/svensmark-and-those-objective-scientists-when-research-and-politics-interface-watch-out/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this one&lt;/a&gt;.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris White: If you ever want to see what I&#8217;ve written on a certain topic (for example, global warming) just type it into the &#8220;search&#8221; function of this blog on the right sidebar.  If you do that, you&#8217;ll see that, among other things, I&#8217;ve written <a href=http://neoneocon.com/2007/01/22/scientists-are-political-people-too/" rel="nofollow">this</a> fairly lengthy piece and <a href="http://neoneocon.com/2007/08/21/svensmark-and-those-objective-scientists-when-research-and-politics-interface-watch-out/" rel="nofollow">this one</a>.</p>
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		<title>
		By: q2600		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52240</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q2600]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:13:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52240</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Is the absolute casualty count the only issue?  What about the fact that 90% of the Iraqi casuaties are the result of INSURGENT action?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is the absolute casualty count the only issue?  What about the fact that 90% of the Iraqi casuaties are the result of INSURGENT action?</p>
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		By: Occam's Beard		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52234</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Occam's Beard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 18:46:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/05/science-and-casualty-figures-in-iraq-lancing-the-lancet-boil/#comment-52234</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Chris, once again, let me make my earlier point another way: how many &lt;i&gt;military&lt;/i&gt; casualties did the Iraqis suffer?

Answer: none, because every one of the insurgents is a civilian (i.e., not a member of the Iraqi Army). 

So whether the number of dead Iraqis is 60,000 or the ridiculously high 600,000 of the &lt;i&gt;Lancet&lt;/i&gt; study is irrelevant. If every one of those civilian casualties was in fact an insurgent, I for one say, &quot;Great!&quot;

The argument should therefore turn on the proportion of combatant-types. Merely citing deaths of &quot;civilians&quot; invites the conclusion that all the people we&#039;re talking were grandmothers shopping in the markets, children flying kites, etc.  and overlooks those who were aiming an RPG when sent to collect their 72 virgins.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris, once again, let me make my earlier point another way: how many <i>military</i> casualties did the Iraqis suffer?</p>
<p>Answer: none, because every one of the insurgents is a civilian (i.e., not a member of the Iraqi Army). </p>
<p>So whether the number of dead Iraqis is 60,000 or the ridiculously high 600,000 of the <i>Lancet</i> study is irrelevant. If every one of those civilian casualties was in fact an insurgent, I for one say, &#8220;Great!&#8221;</p>
<p>The argument should therefore turn on the proportion of combatant-types. Merely citing deaths of &#8220;civilians&#8221; invites the conclusion that all the people we&#8217;re talking were grandmothers shopping in the markets, children flying kites, etc.  and overlooks those who were aiming an RPG when sent to collect their 72 virgins.</p>
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