Trump, the GOP, the wall, perfectionism, and concern trolls
The problem has been around much much longer than Trump has been a politician. I’ve fought it for well over a decade, and I came late to the game.
What is the problem I’m talking about? The perception by much of the right that the GOP consists of a bunch of betrayers who don’t want what they say they want.
Let me be perfectly clear: this perception is actually somewhat true. And by “somewhat” I mean it’s sometimes true of most of the GOP politicians, and it’s almost always true of a few of them. That doesn’t mean it has some basic, permanent, kneejerk truth.
The perception is sometimes very destructive to those on the right. It fractures the right in ways that punish the entire party, sometimes (perhaps even often) leading to Democrat victory either in the presidency or in Congress. I’ve pointed this out in different ways at different times as long as I’ve been blogging, and I’m pointing it out again.
I see it starting to happen now, not so much on this blog but in a lot of venues on the right. I recommend reading Kurt Schlicter’s column on the subject entitled, “Gee, I Guess Now I’m Going To Have To Be Happy With Only 90% Of The Stuff I Wanted Trump To Do.”
Indeed:
Just chill. The wailing and gnashing of teeth on the hardcore conservative side over Trump’s delaying action – really, a hudna – in the battle for the wall is way over the top and typically overdramatic.
Trump’s caved-in!
We’re doomed!
Pelosi annihilated him with her master stratagems and it’s all over for conservatism!
Oh please. Lighten up, Francises – and many of you are my pals. But you need this bucket of cold water. What happened Friday doesn’t matter.
Not at all.
Well, that’s not quite accurate. It could matter, if you decide to keep doing exactly what Nancy Pelosi wants you to do, freaking out. That’s why she employed her brilliant stratagem of just saying “No” – since you’re upset, let me point out that this is sarcasm.
It wasn’t brilliant – it was obvious. She was counting on you to set up as a do-or-die test for Trump over something where she and Chuck Schumer held a veto…
Think about it – what do Nancy and Chuck want you to do right now? They want you to say “Gosh, Trump didn’t get the wall yet so I’m going to stop supporting him” and to give up in despair.
Maybe you should do as I do, and make it a rule not to do what Chuck and Nancy want you to do.
I don’t agree with everything Schlicter writes in the column—just as an example, I definitely don’t agree with him when he writes, “We’re winning, politically and culturally,” although I hope Schlicter’s correct on that and that I’m wrong. But I agree with his basic idea that we should not fall into the trap that has been set by the left. And yet we so often do.
[NOTE: Most of the regulars here know of a commenter known as “manju.” I find him interesting because he’s a good way to keep up with Democratic talking points. Today, right on schedule, manju wrote this:
…[Trump] was a President whose party controlled both houses. He could’ve financed the wall thru budget reconciliation, thus avoiding a filibuster.
But he squandered those years. Now he’s lost the house and it’s too late.
Or, as Schlicter wrote (sarcastically, in his case, mocking the response of some on the right, a response Pelosi and Schumer—and their obedient servant manju—are looking for) “Trump’s caved-in! We’re doomed!”
Even if what manju said were true, so what? Trump’s done most of what he said he would do, which is pretty amazing. What’s more, “he” (Trump, that is) couldn’t have financed the wall through budget reconciliation—it’s the Congress that supposedly could have done that during the first two years of Trump’s term.
But is that even true? Perhaps, but I don’t think so. The problem with having used budget reconciliation during the first two years of the Trump administration in order to get the wall financed was that the GOP margin in the Senate was paper-thin. They barely had a majority there, and would have needed nearly every single GOP member of the Senate to vote yes. I doubt very much they had the votes for that.
And now, after the election of 2018 in which the GOP managed to gain a few Senate seats, they almost certainly could pass such a bill in the Senate through reconciliation, because they probably could get a majority. But now, unfortunately, they no longer control the House.
Actually, a lot of people are reporting that if a bill including funding for the wall were to be voted on right now in the House, it could probably gain enough Democrats to get a slim majority there. However, Pelosi refuses to bring it up. Fancy that. She knows it will screw Trump, and cause a significant number of people on the right to turn against him. And then she reaps the rewards.]
And when Obama “squandered” the House? One thing about TDS I can’t stand is when things that happen to him are suddenly radically different to what happened to all previous presidents.
There was going to be a blue wave, remember. He actually did better than expected.
As for the wall. When Trump runs for re-election, his strategy should include the wall. And a reminder to voters that if they want it, Republicans need to control both chambers.
If voters want increased border security — and a vast number do — then the Democrats are playing with fire by refusing to grant it. They may be very pleased with their tactical victory, but it will only be a real victory if Republicans blow it out of proportion. It’s two years.
Another example, from a commentary by Kimberley Strassel in the WSJ, is the Senate Intelligence committee, chaired in theory by Richard Burr (R, NC), but chaired in fact by Mark Warner (D, VA) because Burr gave in to the media hype about his being a Trump flunky. So a Senate committee which could have been as effective as was the Nunes House committee instead had done nothing and still pretends there may be evidence of Russian collusion out there.
I tend to agree with Schlicter’s approach here. Because Trump hasn’t accomplished everything doesn’t mean he’s done nothing; far from it.
Don’t forget. Senators Corker and Flake both opposed Trump vehemently. Both would not have voted for a wall in Trump’s first two years. Thus, for all intents and purposes, Trump has (best case scenario!) 49 reliable GOP votes, IF Murkowski was in a play nice mood.
Razor thin margin, indeed.
Michael Towns:
My point exactly.
CNN acts like Ann Coulter is the spokes person for the entire right. I wish she would shut up ( or apply for AO-C’s former bartender job).
In culture war the proverbial fog is so thick that it is impossible to say with any certainty which side is winning. Too many undercurrents and opposite reactions to any visible development. So Schlicter could be eventually turned out to be right. For me, the situation reminds what Churchill said in November 1942, after victory at El Alamein: “This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”
manju: “…[Trump] was a President whose party controlled both houses. He could’ve financed the wall thru budget reconciliation, thus avoiding a filibuster.
But he squandered those years. Now he’s lost the house and it’s too late.”
No, the GOP squandered it. The GOP had the House, and did nothing. Trump “was not THEIR boss”, and they were not beholden to him. The GOP seems to be happiest when they’re playing third (or fourth) fiddle.
Sam L:
Did you actually read my post?
“The GOP” didn’t squander it. A few members of the GOP made it impossible. Blame them, not the entire GOP.
The House actually passed a bill funding the wall (see this) but the Senate would not approve because of a few RINO holdouts. That was the problem right along.
The House had also passed some wall funding earlier (see this and this).
So many folk treat this real political stuff like some kind of sports event, comments, criticism, replay, after the fact the should have, could and would have stuff instead of real ongoing history. What we want, either those on the left or those on the right matters when we vote and when we support those we agree with both with money and communications but what happens kind of just happens as the stuff plays out. I really dislike Monday Morning quarterbacks.
Neo, thank you for keeping your blog free of the hair-on-fire rhetoric that appeared on so many sites in the past two days. Maybe it’s my age, or my training as a historian, but I value reminders that any event needs the passage of time to be seen in proper perspective.
Oh, I think there was lots of hair-on-fire rhetoric on this site — it just wasn’t thrown around by Neo!
Some of the excerpts that have been quoted by Neo and commenters have definitely been incendiary.
Everyone would have been well advised to wait a day or two to gain some perspective before posting anything, but that would have ruined Phillips’ (and the left’s) profiteering from his portion of the 2-hour-hate.
I have been thoroughly incended by the flames of rampant bigotry fanned by cowardice and ignorance.
Whoops – thought I was still on a Covington thread.
Well, no matter, it’s a general all-purpose observation.
I understand people’s disgust that our side has been out maneuvered by the opposition and even more disgust because some Republican Senators are such a bunch of RINOs. There are days when I fear that we are on the slippery slope toward a Banana Republic. Then I remind myself that it is much like a never ending football game. Some plays work and sometimes the home team makes a big drive. Other times nothing goes as planed and it appears that all is lost. The momentum shifts back and forth. What we need is more team work among the GOP. The Dems vote as a group, while our side has many individualists who want to go their own way. (That’s why they’re Repubs in the first place. Not a bunch of collectivists, but that’s another story.)
IMO, Madame Pelosi may be overplaying her hand. In fact, the Dems may be overplaying their hands. That AOC and the two Muslim freshman Reps are making so much noise in D.C. may be a gift. The country is still center right. We are not ready to become Venezuela or even an imitation of it. Sergey is correct. We just need to keep on keepin’ on.
Thanks for weighing in, JJ. Very sensible, as always.
I’ve pasted the URL to the great post Why Didn’t the GOP Congress Fund the Wall in several places. I searched for it so many times that I bookmarked it.
Ok, so the bill with wall funding passed the Republican controlled house but failed a cloture vote in the Senate, 50-49. According to Roll Call, “McConnell voted against the measure so he could bring the measure back up for reconsideration.”
Based on this, had Trump prioritized his number 1 promise, he had a high probability of winning thru budget reconciliation, where there is no 60 vote cloture threshold. The 115th House was a gimmie.
But now he’s lost the House. The numbers aren’t there and the mandate, however subjective, is gone.
So, why did he wait?
So, why did he wait?
He didn’t. You don’t understand Congress. Ask your runners in the DNC to explain it to you.
Meanwhile, the Mexican drug cartels are running the Democrats.
Interesting thread on what is going on.
Manju:
The House bill I linked was passed in December of 2018. In other words, this past December. Here’s the link again.
The Senate vote you’re discussing, and the link you provided in this comment of yours, occurred in January of 2018. About a year earlier. This is the article you linked.
Two separate events—unless you think that McConnell is some sort of time traveler.
As to why McConnell voted as he did:
As with the Obamacare repeal, the margin in the Senate for the GOP (for Trump’s first 2 years in office) was paper-thin, and McConnell very likely knew (and conveyed to Trump) that they didn’t have the votes to pass the measure involving wall funding. And after the 2018 election, they didn’t have the House.
Neo,
Ok, the 50-49 cloture vote was last year. But it still indicates that Repubs could’ve mustered 51 yeas thru reconciliation. Googling around, I see that at least one Republican was making that case in October.
So the question is why didn’t they. Maybe you’re right. McConnell knew he didn’t have the votes. I haven’t seen any public evidence of that but its possible.
What I have seen public evidence of is that Trump was no longer serious about the wall. IIRC:
1. General Kelly said on two occasions that the wall, at least as originally planned, was dropped very early in the Trump admin due to logistical issues.
2. Trump started making various claims that the wall was already build. This included trying to pass of wall or fence that Obama built as his own. Brietbart swung back hard…with one of their reporters publicly challenging Trump’s press secretary in the briefing room.
3. Trump had already agreed to a budget that did not include a wall in Dec. He blindsided McConnell after Ann Coulter and others revolted.
This indicates to me that Trump’s strategy was to claim success without actually delivering. He’s gotten away with claiming that N.Korea is denuclearizing when it isn’t, so he figured he could pull that con again.
But it looks to me like he’s having a bit of a Gail Wynand moment.
Manju:
You got the times backwards, but you just go on with your games.
Why do you waste your time here? Don’t you have something better to do than to troll—often very stupidly—here?
I liked Schlicter’s phrase about “Paul Ryan and the Fredocons.” Only Fredo ended up catching a bullet and Ryan will end up with something quite a bit nicer. I actually searched for Ryan’s new job, and got nothing. However, his top congressional aid, Mark Epley has a nifty new job as senior advisor, VP, and legal counsel for a trade assoc. representing the industry of global hedge funds. Very nice work if you can get it.
Maybe J.J. is right. Dems just like to vote as a block (magically it seems), and GOPers are individualists. Alternatively, perhaps there is a sizeable block of Republicans in the House and Senate who sit around and divvy up the tens of millions of campaign cash when it comes in from the US Chamber of Commerce and the Bus. Roundtable, etc., and then they draw straws to decide who is going the kill the conservative initiatives and receive the hate mail. Beats working for a living.
Who knows? But I do know that Trump has gotten a bit less than half of his promises so far. I am semi thrilled with his performance, really. He has and will boast and overstate his accomplishments. Obamacare is still fully the law of the land as soon as Trump’s exec. orders are reversed. The wall will never get built unless he declares an emergency AND ignores lower court rulings.
But I have no desire to torpedo any GOP efforts. I give money to the RNCC because the number of candidates is too large to manage otherwise. I do not donate to Mitch McConnell’s pals (and the horrific Thad Cochrane, now gone) and instead send money directly to people like Tom Cotton and Martha McSally.
Remember, if we were all loyal GOPe stalwarts over the last few years, we’d be living under the rule of Hillary Clinton right now, and we’d start ramping up the support for Jeb Bush in 2020 again, or maybe George P. Bush. We’ve broken the mold and we got to keep breaking it from time to time. The history of the GOP and the major political battles really is one of Lucy van Pelt and the football.
Keep your eyes open, consider all the possibilities, and guess as wisely as you can. And guess you must, because you don’t know what happens behind closed doors and that’s where the action is. It is the worst system, except for all of the others. (Churchill wasn’t just being cute.)
I have pretty much given up on Republicans. I just buy more ammunition.
I would be willing to work as a poll watcher in 2020 if they want me. I still suspect that the Mexican drug cartels are running the Democrat Party, at least in Arizona.
I misstated the case on Obamacare in the above. If I remember, they did enact legislation to eliminate the individual mandate. That’s important as a matter of principle and practice, though it doesn’t negate the fact that Chief Justice Roberts Constitutionally legalized the levying of federal penalties as long as they’re called taxes. Other similar penalties could be legislated in the future, or the old one reinstated. Then there is the huge raft of Obamacare code that is still in place.
Dana Perino has claimed to have been significantly inside the G.W. Bush inner circle. She once stated that Bush felt that his biggest and most crowning achievement was selecting and installing Roberts as the Chief Justice. Sheesh!
Mike K,
Don’t forget the extra magazines.
My wife used to be a poll worker. Then they demanded extensive ID info including SSNs, to work at the polls. She told them, I’ll give you my SSN when you start demanding SSNs in order to vote, .. not before.